Innovation Outlook and Trends for 2026

In a rapidly changing world, 2026 is expected to mark the start of a new European investment cycle in innovation, with a focus on strategic areas such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, batteries and, of course, defence. Amid global tensions and the need for autonomy, European collaboration is gaining scale and urgency. For those who are prepared—with excellent proposals and strong partnerships across value chains—a decisive window of opportunity is opening.

The future has become even harder to anticipate

Envisioning the future has never been an easy exercise—ask Zandinga, for those who remember him from the 1980s: he could never even guess a national football champion, at a time when that was not all that difficult. But looking ahead and forecasting trends has now become far more complicated.

I was asked to write this article in late December. I am writing it now, in early January 2026—after the American operation in Venezuela, which made us wake up in a world (even more) different from the one we had been used to for many years. The only certainty these days seems to be that, with each turn of the year, things will be quite different in the year that follows. Whether better or worse is, however, as always, a matter of perspective and, of course, of how prepared we are.

European collaboration as a strategic necessity

INOVA+ has stood out as a leading company in the preparation, management and implementation of European innovation projects, particularly under the Horizon Europe programme, which implements the common policy for innovation and research—indeed, it is one of Europe’s leading companies in this field. At a time when Europe is going through turbulent times, which many believe could undermine the foundations of the European project, this does not mean we look at our main area of activity with concern—quite the opposite.

The most recent developments only reinforce the need for European collaboration in innovation and competitiveness, as a way to gain scale and ensure autonomy in areas as strategic as batteries, semiconductors, artificial intelligence and, of course, defence and security. Not to mention strategic consulting, where we remain heavily dependent on external firms.

Whatever form the European project may take in the future, collaboration between countries to achieve excellence in European innovation—both for civilian and military purposes—will undoubtedly be one of its pillars and one of its strategic priorities. Any other option would imply a loss of competitiveness and autonomy that Europe, its Member States and its citizens are not willing to accept lightly.

A new cycle of investment in innovation

As we approach the end of a cycle in terms of European funds, and a new cycle is already in the final stages of preparation, a strong increase in European investment in innovation is to be expected. That reinforcement should begin as early as 2026 and intensify in 2027 and 2028, with the start of the new cycle.

On the one hand, with a new and strengthened Horizon programme for civilian or dual-use innovation, including a strong focus on areas such as artificial intelligence, microelectronics and semiconductors, as well as the battery industry. On the other hand, with the emergence of a new programme of similar scale in the fields of defence and security, in the space so far occupied only by the European Defence Fund—a programme of relatively small size at the European scale.

This multiplication of investment in innovation will certainly come at the cost of sacrifices in other areas, both at European and national level (since the EU budget comes from the Member States). It will be positive above all for those who can present excellent proposals and build partnership networks with scaling effects across Europe and along value chains, involving research resources, production capacity, real-environment testing facilities and end-users.

At INOVA+, these very specific capabilities have been developed since 1998, the year we entered our first European project, and over the last 27 years—culminating in a leading position in Europe in terms of participation in large-scale European missions. That is why we feel prepared for the enormous challenges that Europe in general, and Portuguese organisations in particular, can expect from this new world in which, almost suddenly, we find ourselves.

Since we are in it, let’s get on with what needs to be done—and let’s do it well.